I predicted that George Bush would win the 2004 election.
I know that sounds kind of pretentious at this late date, but I really did. Let me explain how I knew.
In June of 2004 I was attending my 25th College Reunion in Boston, and at one point my family and I exited the subway at Kendall Square. There were a number of young people, students most likely, who were carrying banners and passing out flyers. One of them approached me and gave me a flyer while saying, "Help us get George Bush out of the White House!"
I looked at the flyer, and it was a pretty basic political summary sheet of why his particular group didn't like President Bush. Looking around, I noticed that all the banners seemed to say much the same thing; get rid of Bush.
Curious, I looked at the young man in front of me and asked, "Who should I vote for?"
For five seconds he had what I can only describe as a "deer-in-the-headlights" look on his face. It was as if I had asked him the one question he had never expected to hear, as if he couldn't even conceive of a political imperative beyond the necessity of getting George Bush out of office. I'm certain he could have rattled off a litany of reasons that the President was the worst choice for the country and for the world, but beyond those negatives he hadn't even thought about the issue. As I waited for his brain to reengage, I considered saying, "You know, we do have to replace him with someone" but I refrained. I didn't think I could have done a good enough job of keeping the amusement out of my voice.
Finally he comprehended the question and reanimated with, "Oh, uh...John Kerry of course!"
I thanked him for the flyer, and went on with my family to the reunion activities. My family had a good time, that young man probably thought he had another convert to his view and I KNEW that George W. Bush would be reelected. Why? Because he was the only candidate.
Think about it. There were two types of votes cast in the election, but they were both about one candidate. There was the Pro-Bush vote and the Anti-Bush vote. In web-based discussions I have seen it referred to as the ABB vote (Anyone But Bush). There wasn't really a John Kerry vote at all, at least not in any numbers worth mentioning.
One thing I can say about human nature; we listen to negatives but we mostly respond to positives. The media is full of negatives on the situation in Iraq every night. Most Americans can tell you how many troops died in attacks yesterday, because that information is easy to come by. In fact, it's pretty hard to avoid. We all know about Scott Peterson, but who was the hero yesterday? Who saved a life, who adopted a child, who passed a test, who fed the hungry, who helped someone in need, who won the lottery? Well, okay the media does publish that last one, but the rest of those might just as well not even exist. In December of 2004 there were several murders at a nightclub in Ohio where Darryl Abbott formerly of the groups Pantera and Damageplan was playing. Darryl was killed, along with 4 others. I know this, but I don't have any recent good news other than good weather in Dallas this month. We listen to the bad news, and so that is what we are given. It doesn't motivate us though.
That was John Kerry's downfall. His entire campaign revolved around the fact that he WASN'T George Bush. I did hear him try to get a few pro-John Kerry points in, but they got buried in the avalanche of anti-Bush propaganda being broadcast by a list of characters that was long on name recognition and short on reasons to vote FOR John Kerry. From Michael Moore to Dan Rather to Bruce Springsteen, the chant was "No More Bush!!" Lost in all that was a reason for John Kerry to be President, the solutions he would propose, the plans he had (I heard that he had one, but I never heard what it was) and the good he would do. People listened, but many of them didn't vote because they hadn't been given someone to vote FOR.
With all the new registrations by Democratic organizations, the "get out the vote" rallies, "vote or die" and "choose or lose" rallies, you'd think George never had a chance, but I knew all along he would win. People will go to hear or see a celebrity, but if that celebrity isn't physically at the polls the number who will show up because some celebrity told them to drops dramatically. The turn out was up overall, but not in the numbers the Democrats needed. And why not? Because ultimately, negatives don't motivate us.
The ABB vote didn't care enough to show up.
